Tioga County: The Key to GOP Victory in NY-19

The final maps for congressional elections in New York have been released, placing

Tioga County Republican voters in a unique position to make a massive impact on the 2022

midterm elections. Tioga County has been added to New York’s 19th Congressional District (or NY-19), which stretches from Tompkins and Tioga counties on the western border all the way to Greene and Columbia counties on the eastern border. Below you can see a detailed version of both the statewide map, and the map for NY-19:

According to the prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight, NY-19 has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+0.8. This means that Republicans get about 0.8% more votes in an average election than Democrats in NY-19, making it one of the most competitive districts in the country. Only 14 of the 435 congressional districts in America have a PVI of 1% or less, with Tioga County now being in one of them.

Tioga County will be arguably the most Republican county in the new NY-19, with Tom Reed having won the county by 27.2% when he was re-elected as the congressman of New York’s 23rd Congressional District in 2020. No other county in the new NY-19 came close to the Republican candidate winning by such a margin in their own congressional race, making Tioga County a major vote center for the GOP in 2022. Driving turnout among Tioga County voters could make the difference in whether the county is represented by a Republican or a Democrat going forward.

Tioga County will be further positioned to make an impact by virtue of its status as a neighbor of two of the most competitive counties in the news district: Broome and Cortland. Broome and Cortland both voted for Democrats for Congress in 2020, but also both voted for Marc Molinaro for governor in 2018. With Molinaro being the early favorite to win the Republican nomination in the district, this sets both Broome and Cortland up as “swing” counties which could determine the fate of the district. Tioga County Republican activists will be well positioned to aid the voters in those counties in their efforts to win this seat.

While many of us enjoyed our status in a safe Republican seat for the past decade of Tioga County being in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, the new NY-19 will provide us with an opportunity to shape the future of America which we did not have in prior election cycles. It is now up to us to take that opportunity and run with it!