ELECTION 2024: What To Expect In Tioga County

With Kathy Hochul signing into law yet another new Congressional map for the 2024 election, Tioga County is poised to have its fourth Congressman in five years. In the aftermath of the resignation of Tom Reed in 2022, local Republican county chairman Joe Sempolinski finished his term prior to Marc Molinaro taking over in 2023. Tioga County has now been placed back into the 23rd Congressional District for the 2024 election, a district spanning the Southern Tier and Western New York. The new map, pictured below, will put Tioga County back into a deeply Republican district which voted for Lee Zeldin by 29.2% and Nick Langworthy by 29.8% in 2022 and backed President Trump by 18.1% in 2020.

Photo Credit: Lohud

This new district will virtually guarantee that Tioga County remains represented by a Republican through 2030. No Democrat in 2022 won a district that had a Republican advantage greater than 8%, and this district has a far greater Republican advantage than that. Though this could change between now and the end of the petitioning process, it does not appear that the Democrats will be fielding a 2024 challenger to Congressman Nick Langworthy, who is highly likely to be our new congressman in 2025. He is virtually assured to remain safe from Democrat challengers going forward.

State Senator Tom O’Mara and Assemblyman Christopher Friend both ran unopposed in 2022, cruising to re-election in the process. It also appears at this time that we are unlikely to have any Democrat challengers to the half dozen or so local offices on the ballot in 2024. If that holds true through the end of the petitioning process, it would mean that the only contested elections we would see in November are the Presidential election and the US Senate election.

The Presidential election is one we are so familiar with that it needs no explanation, but I will briefly address it. As of Wednesday, March 6th, there is only one Republican candidate with ballot access who has not suspended his campaign. President Donald Trump is just over 130 delegates short of securing the Republican nomination, and with Nikki Haley dropping out in the aftermath of Super Tuesday his nomination is a foregone conclusion. He will face President Joe Biden in a rematch of 2020, giving us the campaign that COVID lockdowns deprived us of seeing at the time and allowing President Trump the chance to confront Joe Biden on his abysmal record. This race will obviously captivate the attention of the nation throughout 2024.

Our US Senate race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand appears to be heading for a contested Republican primary, with at least three candidates having pledged to petition their way onto the ballot. Among those are retired NYPD Detective Mike Sapraicone, businessman Josh Eisen and former pro boxer and TV personality Cara Castronuova. Mike Sapraicone has won the endorsement of the New York State Republican Party, but both Eisen and Castronuova have the opportunity to earn their way onto the ballot. Should a primary emerge, issues such as gun rights, the right to life, and support for President Trump are likely to be central issues.

Tioga County Republicans should view this as a fantastic opportunity to drive up turnout for our statewide races, knowing that our local races are all likely to be uncontested, or will at least have a massive Republican advantage if they are contested. While people in other areas will have to focus on helping battleground candidates like Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams, we can focus entirely on making gains on our 2022 statewide performance by defeating Joe Biden and Kirsten Gillibrand. The fight to save our state and nation will take all of us, and Tioga County stands poised to play a central role in that fight in 2024.